Jain Resource Recycling

NSE: JAINREC · Initiating Coverage · March 2026 · Motilal Oswal

₹403

CMP

₹520 +29%

Target Price

BUY

Market Cap

₹139b

USD 1.5b

FY28E Revenue

₹163b

36% CAGR

FY28E EBITDA

₹11.8b

48% CAGR

FY28E PAT

₹8.4b

56% CAGR

FY28E RoE

30.9%

RoCE: 23.4%

Total Capacity

287KMT

→ 455KMT FY28E

Revenue Trend (₹m)

Actual

Estimated

Revenue Segment Mix (FY25)

Copper

50%

₹32b

Lead

44%

₹28b

Aluminum

₹2.6b

Others

₹1.3b

Export Rev.

57%

~₹40b

FY25–28E Growth (CAGR)

36%

Revenue

48%

EBITDA

56%

PAT

Lead Vol. CAGR ~25%

Lead EBITDA CAGR ~35%

Copper Vol. CAGR ~17%

Copper EBITDA CAGR ~35%

Financial Summary (₹b)

Metric	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E
Revenue	28.5	30.6	44.3	64.3	93.1	137.8	163.3
EBITDA	1.2	1.2	2.3	3.7	6.6	9.4	11.8
EBITDA %	4.1%	4.1%	5.1%	5.7%	7.1%	6.8%	7.2%
PAT	0.9	0.9	1.6	2.2	4.4	6.4	8.4
EPS (₹)	2.5	2.7	4.7	6.4	12.8	18.6	24.4
RoE (%)	80.9	59.5	57.4	40.5	36.8	32.4	30.9
Net D/E	5.0x	2.9x	1.6x	0.9x	0.5x	0.4x	0.2x

Valuation (P/E)

FY26E

31.6× EV/EBITDA 22.4×

FY27E

21.6× EV/EBITDA 15.8×

FY28E ★

16.5× EV/EBITDA 12.4×

Valuation basis: 21x FY28E EPS of ₹24.4

Target Price: ₹520

~25% discount to 3Y avg GRAVITA | In-line with 5Y avg

Total Capacity Expansion (MTPA)

EBITDA / MT Trends (₹)

Metric FY25 → FY28E

● Lead

₹16,897 → ₹21,067

+24.7% improvement | 35% EBITDA CAGR

● Copper

₹32,903 → ₹48,247

+46.6% improvement | 35% EBITDA CAGR

● Aluminum

₹19,885 → ₹25,219

+26.8% improvement

Peer Comparison

Gravita India

₹113b

20%

33%

24%

20.4×

18.5%

Pondy Oxide

₹33b

32%

50%

59%

14.0×

17.2%

JAINREC ★

₹139b

36%

48%

56%

16.5×

30.9%

JAINREC leads on EBITDA & PAT CAGR while offering superior RoE vs peers at comparable FY28E valuations

Industry Demand Tailwinds

India Lead Demand CAGR
FY24→FY30 6.4%

Secondary Lead Market Share
FY24 & FY30E 85%

India Secondary Copper CAGR
FY24→FY30 14%

Sec. Copper Share FY30
vs 39% in FY24 55%

India Copper Demand CAGR
FY24→FY30 7.6%

Unorganized Lead Sector
Market share → organized ~60%

Key Investment Catalysts

⚡

Antimony Extraction (3QFY27) Plant to process 1,000 MT/month lead-antimony bullion → ~100T antimony/month. Niche technology, high entry barriers. Capex: ₹200m.

🔧

Copper Forward Integration (FY26–27) Copper cathode → wire rods → busbars via Unit 3 (Jain Green Technologies). Capex ₹1.5b from internal accruals.

🌐

JV with C&Y Group (Jun'26) ₹600m plant in Ahmedabad. 25,000 MT/yr processed copper. 55% JAINREC stake. US scrap supply secured.

📋

Regulatory Tailwinds BWMR, GST RCM expansion, EPR framework (Apr'26) — all accelerating formalization and market share shift to organized players.

🏭

Capacity: 287KMT → 455KMT by FY28 Lead: 184K→300K MT. Copper: 83K→100K MT. Kuwait battery plant (3QFY27): 2,000T/month.

SWOT Analysis

Strengths

LME-registered lead ingot (1 of 2 in India)
120+ country sourcing network
~71% direct scrapyard procurement
Back-to-back LME hedging
Integrated multi-metal platform

Weaknesses

Revenue concentration in lead + copper
High import dependency (~75–80%)
Limited diversification currently

Opportunities

EPR framework formalization
Forward integration (copper cathodes)
Antimony extraction value unlock
GOI sustainability push

Threats

Export restrictions / INR volatility
Delay in copper FI project
Commodity price volatility
Execution risk in new initiatives

Bull / Base / Bear Cases (FY28E)

BULL CASE ₹675

P/E 23× | EPS ₹29.3 | Rev CAGR 41% | EBITDA% 7.7%

BASE CASE ★ ₹520

P/E 21× | EPS ₹24.4 | Rev CAGR 36% | EBITDA% 7.2%

BEAR CASE ₹352

P/E 19× | EPS ₹18.5 | Rev CAGR 31% | EBITDA% 6.2%

Shareholding Pattern

Promoter

73.6%

DII

8.7%

FII

3.7%

Others

14.0%